Mining in 2020 and 2050 Part 2

In part 1 I looked at how mines could be operating in 2020, but now lets look at what could be happening in 2050

Mining in 2050

Operating mines in 2050 may not be in their planning stages until 2045, allowing us the benefit of 35 years of technology development. Futurists will tell you that predicting 35 years of technology development is very difficult – but we’ll do it anyway because it is also fun.

A mine in 2050 will look very different to that of 2020. For a start, there will be very few people because almost all of the machinery will be automated. The entire area of the open cut will be highly secure, to prevent people entering areas where large machines are operating at very high speeds. The site will look more like an airport than a mine, with service areas located at the edge of the secure site. The only staff present on site will be those securing the site, and a few maintenance engineers. Without people, the support infrastructure required is also small.

Fleet Automation


Within the mine we see large numbers of small vehicles operating at speed, and without human drivers. Technology originally designed by NASA to guide the Mars Rover, and newer planetary probes on the moons of Jupiter are now being used by these vehicles. The vehicles are multi-purpose and directly access the mine plan (updated daily by planning software and mine engineers working in the capital city) and using collaborative machine to machine protocols to determine the most efficient way to deliver against the day's mining targets.   The vehicles self-configure as micro-haulers, drill and blast vehicles, or road maintenance vehicles in the morning, and can change configuration throughout the day as the mine operating plan changes dynamically in response to the day’s events.

Hydrogen Fuel


All of the vehicles are electric, powered by onboard hydrogen fuel cells. A large part of the mine operation is the generation of hydrogen for fuel cells.  This is achieved using a combination of renewable sources: solar power, wind power and hot rock geothermal power which is  used to produce hydrogen from water. Hydrogen is stockpiled so that it is available for use at all hours of the day and night. The entire mine operates with zero emissions, and all water is recycled. In this mine, ground water is desalinated using waste heat from the hydrogen plant so that water lost to the environment through evaporation and water vapour from the hydrogen cells, is replaced. (A further consequence of this is that groundwater salinity problems of the last century are being clawed back, and the landscape is regenerating).

Nanotechnology


Finally, this mine uses nanotechnology to extract the copper from the ore. The large chemical leach heaps have been replaced by hybrid bio-mechanical nano-extraction techniques where bacteria sized cyber-organisms are bred in large ponds, migrate into the heaps, directly harvest the copper metal from the ore using  biochemical reactions. They incorporate the copper into their bodies and then move to an extraction pond where they die and decompose, leaving elemental copper that can be easily recovered from the pond.

All of these technologies are being researched or developed now.   If anything, this vision of 2050 could prove to be outrageously conservative. If, for instance, nanotechnology, materials science and renewable energy technologies develop along the same kind of timeline as we are used to seeing now, then it is arguable whether the economy will need mining at all.

Mining in 2020 and 2050 Part 1

The populations of the world are beginning to demand that all businesses operate more sustainably. Everybody, but particularly policy makers, can see that we need to do things differently if we expect to have a long term future on the planet. Here I present two views of the mining in the future, seen in terms of their ability to operate with a minimal carbon footprint.

Why 2020 and 2050? In 2020, many of the current operations will still be going, so the 2020 story is one of how we change the current mines to use less carbon. By 2050, we will have used technology advances to build the carbon neutral operation we dream about today.

The carbon footprint of mines today is the result of the fuels we use, how we operate the business and how we mine and deliver raw products. How we reinvent these components will determine what our mines look like in the future.

Mining in 2020.

Today we will visit an open cut copper mine that has been operating since the late 1990’s. New technology developments mean that this mine still has many years of life left, so there is opportunity to make longer term investments in the operation that leave plenty of runway to recoup the investment.

When it was built, this mine was designed with large vehicle transport as the main basis for the layout. It used traditional building methods, heavily reliant on concrete slabs for buildings and metal and concrete workshops and warehouses. An extensive system of haul roads and access roads serves most of the mine areas. This means that the mine’s operation was heavily dependent on haul trucks, water trucks and light utility vehicles,  as well as all manner of mobile mining and drilling equipment, shovels, graders etc. But times have changed…

As we drive into the mine, we need to stop at the security entrance and log ourselves in.   Before we came we enrolled in the biometric access system, and completed the visitors safety induction on-line.   To one side of the gate there is an oil bunker, full of locally produced biodiesel that is used to power the entire fleet of mobile equipment, and much of the fixed plant as well, specifically the generators; turbines fueled by bio-diesel.

We travel over to the workers’ campus accommodating 250 staff.   Each ‘unit’ has its own composting toilet and solar/electric hot water. Temperatures are controlled by their orientation to the sun, deep eaves, and ‘green’ concrete slabs which incorporate fly ash; providing a heat sink to help warm the unit in the winter. All of the water used by the showers and toilets is recycled (and treated) for use in the mining operation.

Our tour includes a visit to the mine operations room. The operations room has two walls lined with video monitors. These low power monitors look just like paper that can be folded up and moved around. This technology was pioneered in 2004 with the development of the e-Ink (www.eink.com) products. Some are displaying real time videos of key operational areas – one shows the ore conveyor, another shows the shovel loading the haul trucks. Different scenes are cycling through and if any operation begins to operate outside of parameters, an alarm sounds and the operations system immediately allocates some monitor space to viewing that process. One whole wall depicts a similar room in the capital – some 500 kms away where mine planners, maintenance planners, and managers are helping the on-site workers to deal with issues, contribute to planning and provide advice on optimizing the operation. That group is helping a number of different mines at the same time.

Out on the site, haul trucks are moving ore to the crushers and from there it goes to the leach heaps. Like today, sulfuric acid is added to the heaps, but a series of sensors spread throughout the heap controls the flow of acid to maximize the process efficiency.

All of the technologies that power these ideas are available and in use today – some in mining operations, some in other industries. They need to be because if the mining industry wants to implement these innovations by 2020, they need to be investing in the next few years.   Things start to get really interesting when we visit the mine in 2050.


In my next post we'll have a look at how that works.

Is Mining about to go Micro - Post 6 (and final)

Over the last 5 posts I've investigated some whacky ideas, but the world of robotics and automation are developing apace.   Here are a few links you might find interesting

Swarm Intelligence

These robots swarm, evolve, seek food, avoid poison, co-operate, and steal food from other robots.

www.tranism.com/.../2007/02/robot-swarms-ev.html

Cool Robots

A New Scientist video recently turned up on Jack Uldrich's 'Jump the Curve' blog. Have a look at it to see some of the future of robots. New Scientist also has a blog specifically about robotics.

http://www.jumpthecurve.net/index.php/recent_posts/our_robotic_future/#When:15:43:00Z

Robot Dragonfly article

Robotics, artitificial intelliegence, automation, and remote management are all technologies in which the rates of innovation now are enormous. New Scientist reports on a robotic dragonfly that could guide Mars rovers - giving the fly's eye view in a task analagous to helicopters being used as force projection assets of naval warships.


In the near future, further miniturisation of the electronics, and better smarts will mean that this kind of technology can be used to continually update the topography of an open cut mine, with swarms of such robots preceeding ultra large automated vehicles, helping automated shovels load automated trucks. Perhaps they will even be able to replace the truck fleet, with millions of tiny robot flies moving enormous tonnages of ore without the need for roads, ramps etc. Just the saving in the profile of the open cut pit would change the economics of mining.


Underground mines could benefit too, with robot miners like the fly moving in to survey the mine after blasting - testing the air, rockface stability, everything. There is also my previous post of the robot crawlers which could also operate underground in very confined spaces.

There is a lot to consider, and the extraterrestrial problems being solved by robots can also be applied here, today.

Autonomous Artifical Hummingbird

A prototype robot spy "ornithopter," the Nano-Hummingbird, has successfully completed flight trials in California. Developed by the company AeroVironment Inc., the miniature spybot looks like a hummingbird complete with flapping wings, and is only slightly larger and heavier than most hummingbirds, but smaller than the largest species.

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-02-robot-hummingbird-flight-video.html

Is Mining about to go Micro - Post 5

What is the advantage

So what is the advantage of this idea? How could a 'many small' system of movers compare to a 'few large' system that currently exists.

Factor	Few/Large	Many/Small
Example	Haul Trucks	Flying microbots
Capital expenditure	$5 million each	Maybe $5.00 each (in the long run) but you'd need a lot of them.
Ongoing Maintenance	Complex, expensive	Disposable individuals but may still be significant.
Operators	Many people needed to support operations of haul trucks - drivers, water carts, graders etc etc.	Very few - supervisors located remotely.
Fuel	Significant cost	Very little - solar powered.
Infrastructure	Roads, ramps etc - significant, in fact determines long term viability of the mine	Little - no roads etc.
It System support	Significant number of systems to help manage all aspects.	Significant (but not so much as current state)

The economic viability of this idea has not yet been modelled, but as with all technologies, the costs reduce over time, and with take-up. A single mine using flying microbots would probably be enough to reach those long run efficiencies in terms of manufacture of the robots, and continuing advances in solar power technology mean that the path to sufficient power resources for this idea is quite predictable.

For me the biggest single effect lies in the ability to change the dynamics of pit morphology. By not having to step the pit back to get to deeper parts of the orebody, the options for continuing mine operations to depth are very different.

Conclusions

There is no doubt that flying dragonfly robots will not replace haul trucks in the next 5 years or maybe ever. Even though most of the technologies are in place, or being researched now, there is still a while before they'll be bought together to this one task. But there is one thing that technology futurists well understand. The pace of technological innovation is relentless, is accelerating, and most people underestimate what can be done, and when.

A solar powered dragonfly  see more here

Is Mining about to go Micro - Post 4

Now in Part 4 lets get into a really crazy idea


Small robots

Predicting the future uptake of technologies is a difficult thing to do. Not many people would have predicted the internet or its impact, even as recently as 15 years ago. Lots of people wrote of trains, planes, automobiles, even telephones as things that wouldn't be much use. Even so, let’s suspend our disbelief for a while and see where this might go.

Imagine small earthmovers - not Ford's - but small 'microbots'. As an example, consider  the dragonfly robot. This small robot can see, fly, and power itself by the sun. What would you be able to do if you could have 1 million of these machines each moving a small amount of crushed ore?   While this is perhaps far fetched, it is worth considering as a possibility just as an exercise in reviewing the economics of the small.

If you could engineer it so that the bot know where to pick up a load and where to drop it off, travel in as straight a line as possible to get it there, and rest in the sun to recharge itself when it needed to, little else is needed.

As the prototype of the bot already exists, and the swarm intelligence distributed algorithms already control robots in the laboratory, and the sensor and control systems already exist to control such a system, there is little else for which to wait.

The way this works might look something like this: Two radio beacons are placed, one on the pile of crushed ore at the bottom of the pit (you need the crusher to be at the bottom of the pit) the second at the drop off point. Once activated, any dragonfly bot that has a sufficient charge, and is not carrying a load will fly to the beacon. Once in the vicinity of the beacon, a local control system vectors the bot to the top of the pile where ore of the needed characteristics is known to be located. The bot grabs its load of say 50-100g of crushed ore, and on automatic, it flys to the beacon at the drop-off point. On the way, using a standard swarm model, the bot negotiates the rest of the swarm and its environment until, in the vicinity of the drop-off beacon it is vectored to the release point.

And it doesn't have to be a flying dragonfly robot, there are small crawling robots, snake like robots, and many other variations, any of which may be able to fundamentally change the mining process.

LATE NEWS

Have a look at the new AlphaDog video.   This robot will carry hundreds of kilos over any terrain.   You can also look at earlier prototypes - BigDog on Youtube as well.


http://youtu.be/SSbZrQp-HOk

Is Mining about to go Micro - Post 3

In Part 3 we look at some of the technologies that will underpin automation.


If you could have smaller vehicles operating independently and automatically you might be able to make an economic case for this scenario. Of course you'd need to implement all of the technologies you need to operate a large number of autonomous vehicles. I'll cover a few such technologies here and provide some idea of where that technology is today and where it might be heading.

Advanced Analytics

The use of analytical algorithms that assist with making many low level decisions is quite advanced in many industries. Because the mining industry is not as technologically mature as others, there is plenty of opportunity to learn from how, say, the aerospace industry uses these advanced analytical techniques to remove the need for human intervention in many processes. Aircraft can now land themselves on autopilot, a specific and highly complex event that needs microsecond by microsecond adjustment of aircraft and engine power in three dimensions, and responding to highly dynamic changes in the surrounding environment in real time. All of this can happen with a plane load of hundreds of people. As a specific task, they don't come much more complicated, and this level of knowledge is in use today in commercial airliners. Many of the technologies and techniques are available for use in the mining industry today.

Smart sensors

Many of the individual, microsecond decisions can actually be undertaken away from the smart core algorithm by smart sensors operating at the periphery of a complex computer algorithm. For very well understood and constrained processes a smart sensor might ‘decide’ to provide data to a central algorithm only when the process deviates from a pre-established norm. For example, a smart thermometer might only report fluctuations in engine temperature outside of a particular range, or if the temperature changes much faster than expected. This takes pressure off the central processing ability of the system.

Machine Intelligence

Both advanced analytical capabilities and smart sensors lead the way to 'machine intelligence'; the ability of a machine to have some level of understanding of the environment around it and of its role within that environment. At the moment, small mobile machines are being designed with levels of intelligence approximating insects. Indeed, some of these machines are incorporating insect neurons within the machine's IT architecture. These machines learn!

At the moment, these machines are even programmed to behave like insects - seeking areas of warmth, running away from the light etc, which might not immediately seem of use to the mining industry, but that is not the limit of what they might be ultimately be capable of.

Automation

With all of these things being either in existence now, or being actively researched, machine autonomy may not be very far away at all. Indeed Komasu and Caterpillar have already produced haul trucks that can be operated remotely, and are working on being able to operate autonomously. Work at the CRCMining (www.crcmining.com.au ) has some machinery automated for some of their functions. To help cope with the communications lag times the Mars Rovers have limited levels of autonomy to allow them to move around on the service of Mars with minimal intervention by people.

Robotics

Another technology that is critical to automating machinery is robotics. Robotics incorporates all of the other technologies discussed here, but also concerns the form and function of the machines. Robotic science is very highly advanced and very sophisticated. Some of the recent advances look to nature to inspire the development of robots, and it is here that I believe the mining industry can look for the future of the mining process.

Snake Robots for mine rescue

Snake Bots You may not love snakes, but you'd be happy to see one of these snake robots if you were trapped in a collapsed building. Check out the snakebots in this episode of Innovation Nation with Miles O'Brien.

Credit: National Science Foundation

And this would equally apply to an underground mining emergency, or even a new wa of mining very thin seams of ore!
http://www.nsf.gov/news/mmg/mmg_disp.cfm?med_id=70984
Also note my earlier post on mine rescue potential of robots.
http://indagopartners.blogspot.com/2011/09/robots-could-save-lives-in-mine.html

Is Mining about to go Micro - Post 2

In Part 2 of this series I think a bit about why things are as they are and what a micro-future might look like.


Why we are hooked on big trucks

For the moment, we use large equipment because the economies of scale have tended to support their development. The industry has been in this evolutionary paradigm for many years because bigger trucks means fewer drivers, less trucks needed per kilometre/tonne of ore moved, and the development of more efficient large engines means the fuel component is less cost per km/t. I'm sure there are also many other efficiencies that work well for large trucks over small ones. So why has the 'going small' option not been considered to date?

In most cases, new ways of doing business are strongly resisted on a few fronts. Firstly, people are pretty conservative and won't take the time to consider alternatives to the way things have “always been done”. Secondly, there is a cost associated with change that might mean that large amounts of invested capital will need to be abandoned, and despite the best efforts of economists worldwide to convince people that invested capital should not be considered for future investment decisions, it usually is. In this instance, there is a lot of existing infrastructure associated with supporting big haul trucks, and few will want to write it off. Perhaps the biggest issue is the risk involved in taking on a new idea - what if it doesn't work - can I bet the company on this?

But enough of this, because all of these issues will be as nothing if the ideas I introduce here are economically viable.

Small is the new Black.

Let us imagine for a moment, replacing your $6 Million Caterpillar truck with 400 Ford F150 pickup trucks - that's how many you'd need to match the carrying capacity. At $20k each, that would cost you $8 Million, but you'd be able to make up the Km/t figure by doing more trips because the F150 is much faster. The biggest issue though is that you'd need a lot more drivers (1200 as against 3 or 4 per truck) so the economics don't work. Unless, that is,you can remove the need for drivers completely.

Robots could save lives in mine disasters

Robots that fly, robots that roll, rotors that cooperate. This article http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20791-robot-mission-impossible-wins-video-prize.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=robots shows a video about how a swarmanoid finds a book in a house. It fun, but also has a serious application. How about these robots being first in to a mine rescue, they can quickly map the situation, set up communications, and guide in the rescue team. Have a look at the video.

Is Mining about to go Micro - Post 1

Introduction

For many years, the business of mining has been a story of more mechanisation, bigger and bigger mines, and bigger and bigger equipment. Advances in the technology of moving large amounts of material in open cut mines has driven the development of bigger and bigger trucks. But will it be like that forever?

I don't think so, because I believe a whole new set of technology developments will mean that the transport of mass materials will be done by smaller and smaller machines, each operating autonomously, making their own decisions, and at a much lower total cost than a fleet of large haul trucks.

Issue

So why are bigger and bigger haul trucks about to see the end of their run? Haul trucks are really expensive to buy and to maintain. At about $5 million for a Caterpillar 797, and a significant ongoing cost for maintenance and operating inputs, there may be a case for doing things differently. Add in the costs of all of the people and other systems that are needed to enable the management of truck fleets, such as roadways and critical parts, and the cost keeps piling up. What if there was a better way of doing things?